Animated Overview¶
A narrated visual walkthrough of the paper's key ideas and findings.
This animation reflects an earlier version of the paper
The narrated video predates the current "Cheap Signals, Costly Proof" framing and reports superseded numbers (e.g. an AUC of 0.94 against CADE, and a pregão-vs-convite price split). For the current figures see the Paper, Results, and Findings pages. The headline discrimination number is now firm-level AUC 0.864 under temporal holdout (0.924 in-sample); the headline result is the 83% bid-microdata reduction recovering 131 of 193 adjudicated cobidders.
Controls
- Click Play to start the narrated animation (English, via browser text-to-speech)
- Use Prev / Pause / Next buttons or arrow keys to navigate
- Best experienced in Chrome for highest-quality speech synthesis
Scenes covered:
| # | Topic | Key number |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Title | |
| 2 | The problem: cartels in public procurement | |
| 3 | The detection gap: limited data | |
| 4 | The strange pattern: firms that always lose | |
| 5 | Cover bidders: faking competition | |
| 6 | The screening rule | 41K → 16.8K → 2,735 firms |
| 7 | Evidence: higher prices | +3.6--7.7% |
| 8 | Evidence: validated against CADE | AUC = 0.94 |
| 9 | Evidence: strategic pattern | Pregão +9.3% vs. Convite +3.8% |
| 10 | Three-stage enforcement pathway | Screen → Triage → Investigate |
| 11 | Closing statement |