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Changelog

v6-jpub-short (2026-04-03)

  • Target: Journal of Public Economics short paper format.
  • Body: Compressed from 5,263 to 3,800 words.
  • Literature review: Collapsed from 5 paragraphs to 1.
  • Heterogeneity: Moved entirely to Online Appendix.
  • New empirical exercises:
    • Placebo test (items never litigated): coefficient \(-0.020\) (SE = 0.032, n.s.) for negotiated prices, \(-0.031\) (SE = 0.045, n.s.) for reference prices. Falsification passes.
    • Supplier fixed effects (2,202 firms): 52% attenuation of urgency coefficient (0.051 to 0.025). With firm FE + quantity controls, residual falls to 0.011 (n.s.). Decomposes premium into roughly equal demand-side and supply-side components.
  • UTG Panel B: Explicitly framed as quantity channel --- sanctions distort the entire procurement environment.
  • Conclusion: Sharpened to two-pronged reform (expand admin mechanism + remove court-order signal from tender notices).
  • Reference fix: Szucs reference corrected (now JEEA 2024).
  • New script: 20_falsification_and_supplier_fe.R.
  • MkDocs: Updated results, paper, replication, and changelog pages.

v8 (2026-02-28)

  • Maps: Enhanced maps with SIRGAS 2000 projection and quintile breaks for litigated, administrative, and ordinary purchases. New 3-panel comparison map.
  • Regressions: Administrative vs ordinary — 40 models (8 outcomes x 4 FE specs + LPM variants). Key finding: admin purchases carry lower reference prices than ordinary (-9.1%).
  • Manuscript: Restructured to 24-page body (under 32pp target) with 5 tables/figures inline; all other results in appendix. Added admin vs ordinary section.
  • MkDocs: New pages for admin vs ordinary results, maps comparison, and changelog.

v7 (2026-02-28)

  • UTG Extended Outcomes: Reference prices, quantities, bidder participation, and tender success added to Under the Gun analysis (24 new regressions).
  • Litigated vs Ordinary: All 8 urgent purchase outcomes replicated for litigated-only comparison (32 new regressions).
  • Figures: Two new coefficient plots (UTG all outcomes, litigated-only).
  • Manuscript: Expanded Results section with UTG subsections and litigated-only section.
  • Replication Package: New script 16_v7_extensions.R, updated run_all.sh and README.

v6 (2026-02-26)

  • Initial public version with replication package, MkDocs website, and complete v4 analysis pipeline.